YouGov Poll Says Boris Johnson Will Lose Seat

Boris Johnson

The Prime Minister could become the first in history to be ousted by his own constituents (Image: Reuters)

Boris Johnson is on course to lose his seat in the next general election and bankrupt his party.

A new poll has found the prime minister has turned toxic in key seats on the battlefield, where he secured a majority just two and a half years ago.

Polls have found most voters think he should quit because of Partygate, and now new models have predicted the outpouring of anger would capsize Conservatives in an election.

Mr Johnson’s pro-Brexit campaign in 2019 saw his party push into Labor Party heartland, but the magic tide has waned.

YouGov has analyzed voting intentions in 88 constituencies that the Tories either won over Labor in 2019 or where they have a majority of less than 15 points over the party.

In all but three, Mr Johnson’s party is on track to lose – including at his own seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

YouGov’s model found that if the prime minister manages to avoid a vote of confidence and lead his party to the next election, he could be out of a job anyway.

The poll showed Labor would win the Greater London constituency by five points, in what would be the first time in history that a Prime Minister had been voted out.

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Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Dudley North would remain blue, but other high-profile 2019 wins such as Burnley, Blyth Valley, Leigh and Stoke-on-Trent North would all turn red again.

Seats like Bishop Auckland, Scunthorpe and Great Grimsby hang in the balance, with Labor narrowly leading while the party in Wales would be wiped out entirely.

Most of the fieldwork for the survey was done before the Sue Gray report was released, meaning the picture may have deteriorated in recent days.

James Johnson, a former Downing Street adviser during Theresa May’s tenure, predicted the real situation could be far worse for the Tories.

He pointed out that the method used by YouGov does not take into account tactical voting, which could be widespread in the next election.

The pollster said: “Tactical votes are helping Labor and the Lib Dems at the moment so it’s very likely the current picture for the Conservatives is even worse than this poll indicates.”

Mr Johnson has so far weathered the storm sparked by Sue Gray’s report of lockdown violations at Downing Street, but there is dissatisfaction within the party.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits the CityFibre Training Academy in Stockton-on-Tees, Darlington. Picture date: Friday May 27, 2022. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS Johnson. Photo credit should read: Owen Humphreys/PA Wire

The Prime Minister has tried to “move on” from Partygate and dodged questions about it during a visit to the North East this week (Image: PA).

A handful of Tory MPs broke ranks this week calling for his resignation, including a parliamentary private secretary and a select committee leader.

Former Minister David Davis told the BBC he still believes the Prime Minister should quit after telling him in the House of Commons in January: “In the name of God, go”.

When asked if more of his peers are losing confidence, Mr. Davis said: “There is no doubt about that for two reasons.

“First, frankly, as they see their own seats disappear in many cases, they see that they lose the next election on the back of that.

“Also, it has a bad effect on the country … it distracts from everything you do and it doesn’t help the country’s reputation.”

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Justin Scacco

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