Worrying forecasts for Florida and the US Gulf Coast

As Hurricane Fiona pulls away from the Turks and Caicos as a powerful Category 4 hurricane and newly formed Tropical Storm Gaston approaches hurricane status over the open waters of the North Atlantic, a powerful tropical wave moving toward the Caribbean Sea gets our attention in Florida draw attention to itself will take shape over the next few days.

The disturbance — dubbed Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center — may take some time to boil, in part due to Hurricane Fiona’s expansive upper-level exhaust fumes acting on its piercing storminess.

This northerly wind shear is expected to continue into the weekend through the end of the weekwhile Fiona accelerates north and west of Bermuda.

By late weekend, the upper level pattern will shift to a configuration that can best be described as pristine for storm growth potential, with a large upper level high pressure region dominating the central Caribbean and helping to drive the increasingly concentrated storminess of 98L to ventilate.

This will all happen in a part of the Atlantic where water temperatures are near the warmest of the season, not only on the surface but also in a deep reservoir with water in excess of 80 degrees, rising to 400 degrees in some places to the west 500 feet down stretches Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Depth of 78 degrees Fahrenheit water reveals a deep reservoir of warm water that extends 125 meters (410 feet) or more in depth in some cases in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. (University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS).)

It’s a volatile mix for an organizing storm that would favor a significant strengthening into early next week.

Regardless of where 98L ultimately forms, high-pressure guidance behind Fiona will take it toward the western Caribbean early next week, with a nosedive to the eastern U.S. signaling a decline in the jet stream that will allow an impending storm to turn north toward the Gulf .


As you might expect from previous newsletters, it’s too early to go into details as small changes over the next few days alone, e.g. B. where the center of 98L forms or how fast it moves can dramatically affect where it lands in 7 to 10 days.

It’s watch and wait for South Florida, but as we gather more details in the coming days, take the time to button up plans if we see a threat next week.

Hurricane hunters to study 98L on a preliminary basis as of Wednesday evening, development trends should justify it.

For our storm-weary southern neighbors in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, the disturbance should remain far to the south, but moisture on its northern edge may increase precipitation on the islands this weekend as it passes.

Hurricane Fiona, now a Category 4 hurricane and the strongest storm of the hurricane season so far, is retreating from the Turks and Caicos Islands after battering the small archipelago near the southeastern Bahamas for most of Tuesday.

The hurricane could get a little stronger on Wednesday as it accelerates north, where it will pass west of Bermuda early Friday. A tropical storm warning and hurricane warning are in place for the British Isles area as there will be an increasing wind field towards Bermuda.


It’s worth noting that Fiona is turning into a major extratropical storm over eastern Canada this weekend September records for low sea level pressure threaten over Canadian Maritimes.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Invest 97L strengthened Tuesday over the middle of the open North Atlantic towards Tropical Storm Gaston.

While Gaston poses no threat to land, it quickly exceeded forecast expectations, nearing hurricane strength Wednesday morning.

The Hurricane Center is also monitoring two more tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic this week, but neither is a problem for us across the pond.


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https://www.local10.com/weather/hurricane/2022/09/21/troubling-forecast-ahead-for-florida-and-the-us-gulf-coast/ Worrying forecasts for Florida and the US Gulf Coast

Sarah Y. Kim

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