Technical strategist Tom DeMark said in March that Bitcoin could fall as low as $18,418, back when the cryptocurrency was trading as low as $48,000.
Bitcoin BTCUSD had a volatile weekend,
traded briefly below $18,000 as it traded around $20,000 on Monday, down about 70% from its Nov. 10 peak of $68,924. Bitcoin collapsed in value as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates.
DeMark’s indicators attach great importance to the number of days, which need not be consecutive, on which a closing price was lower than the closing price two days ago. Under various conditions, a buy signal is triggered when the countdown reaches 13. (The opposite is true for sell signals.) More simply, his analysis looks for both overbought and oversold signals.
In an analysis exclusively made available to MarketWatch, DeMark says lasting damage has been done as Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its peak. On previous declines, Bitcoin held the 50% retracement levels.
See previous story: The technician who called the 2020 market bottom says a “shocking rally” is imminent
“Typically, structural long-term damage is done to an uptrend when a retracement exceeds 56%,” said DeMark, founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and advisor to hedge fund manager Steven A. Cohen. “Such dips suggest that a recovery to Bitcoin all-time highs is highly likely to take many years, if not decades.”
For comparison, it took stocks 25 years to surpass the previous high of September 1929.
But like the stock market after 1929, there could be a rally. “This does not negate the prospect of a recovery of up to 50-56% in the coming months, implying a Bitcoin rally back to $40k-$45k.”
Depending on which timing model is used, bitcoin recorded buy countdown 12 or 13 on Saturday morning Saturday next week. Regardless, once a close is above the 4-day close, followed by the next trading day with a higher high and close, the trend should reverse to the upside,” he says.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tom-demark-identified-the-bitcoin-downside-in-march-heres-the-good-and-bad-news-the-technical-strategist-now-has-for-the-cryptocurrency-11655719167?rss=1&siteid=rss Tom DeMark identified the Bitcoin downside in March. Here’s the good and bad news the technical strategist has for the cryptocurrency right now.