Business

This Eclipse-like event is why Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by next year, says a forecaster with a solid record on crypto

Stocks are bracing for more choppy action as investors continue to consider Federal Reserve minutes and after Nvidia dropped a warning late Wednesday.

But we deviate from Wall Street’s tug-of-war and focus on cryptocurrencies and a call from the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., Yves Lamoureux, who has made some forward-looking predictions on crypto (not to mention stocks).

He said the so-called winter for Bitcoin BTCUSD,
-2.61%
is over for now, with a forecast that the #1 cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 by the end of 2023, in a surge that could last into 2025.

“I’m not giving a big buy signal, I’m just saying yes, you can start buying a little bit,” Lamoureux said in a recent interview with MarketWatch. At $30,000 and down more than 55% from a record high of $68,990 in November 2021, Bitcoin meets many of its criteria for exiting a bear market, he said.

But the crux of his claim is based on an eclipse-like event expected in 2024 (he predicts around March) when rewards for bitcoin miners are halved. The so-called halving event occurs every four years and aims to control the number of coins in circulation and support prices. Most recently on 05/11/2020.

“One of the most important things driving Bitcoin is supply,” he said. “There’s less supply, so less is coming onto the market…this has always pushed prices up in the past. What I’m saying is that it’s out of the narrative now.”

Lamoureux moved away from recommending that investors shouldn’t chase Bitcoin earlier this year, but said he always expects a brief bear market. Among his previous calls, he warned clients of a skyscraper Bitcoin top in November when it hit that record high, as well as predictions coming true in early 2017 and mid-2020.

Also, sentiment for Bitcoin is “super low,” he noted, which has been seen at other major bottoms.

But he advised investors to buy piece by piece rather than make big bets as the path ahead will not be straight. “It is always the same. It surges before the halving, kind of pauses, and then shoots up, so there are two phases,” Lamoureux said.

Bitcoin hitting $100,000 will attract a new wave of investors and attention, he said. But he’s a classic market timer that does well with Bitcoin because he bought and sold at the right moment. “When there’s euphoria, I step out, and when I see a lot of despair and negativity, like now, then I step back in,” he said.

The investment community has taken a bit of a hit on the crypto sector thanks to the stablecoin debacle, fears of further regulation and the general bearish attitude towards assets like stocks.

Read: Guggenheim’s Minerd sees a more brutal washout for Bitcoin taking it to $8,000

Lamoureux is only interested in Bitcoin and “doesn’t trust any of these stablecoin projects.”

“I’m interested in bitcoin because it’s king and that’s where institutional money will flow first. So always stick with the best. Everyone wants to be bitcoin, but they aren’t…don’t make it complicated, stick with bitcoin,” he said.

Don’t miss a new in-depth look at the sector from MarketWatch’s Frances Yue, who delves into where analysts think Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are going now.

The Buzz

chip group Broadcom AVGO,
+1.42%
has landed a $61 billion deal to buy cloud computing group VMware VMW,
+3.97%.

Apple AAPL,
+0.11%
raises hourly wages for US workers to $22 an hour, a 45% increase from 2018, to try to compete in a tight job market and amid pressure from workers to unionize. Bloomberg Apple is also reportedly keeping production levels flat for its iPhone this year due to restrictions in the industry.

Spring swoon continues for tech stocks, with Nvidia NVDA,
+5.08%
Shares fell after the chipmaker issued a weaker outlook due to the COVID-19 shutdown in China and the war between Russia and Ukraine. cloud computing group Nutanix NTNX,
+2.24%
14% discount and the software group Snowflake SNOW,
+2.42%
is down 30% on similarly pessimistic forecasts.

Tesla CEO TSLA,
+4.88%
Elon Musk will be relying on equity to fund his $44 billion Twitter deal rather than a margin loan backed by Tesla stock, which is about a third less since he got one in late April Closed deal with Twitter.

Russia has cut interest rates for the third time since early April. And amid criticism for fueling a global food crisis, Russia has promised to open a safe corridor for foreign ships to exit Black Sea ports in Ukraine, a major agricultural exporter. US Wheat Futures W00,
-2.07%
have fallen by over 2%.

A day ahead of an update to the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, we have weekly jobless claims and revisions to first quarter pre-market GDP followed by upcoming home sales.

Read: Bernanke says he believes inflation will ease later this year

The markets

US stock futures ES00,
+0.70%

YM00,
+0.69%

NQ00,
+0.41%
are higher as Treasury yields are TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.762%

TMUBMUSD02Y,
2.476%
withdraw. gold GC00,
-0.28%
is constant while oil CL00,
+0.83%
goes up. The dollar is stable, but slightly weaker against the ruble after this rate cut.

The graphic

The US continues to mourn a mass shooting that killed 19 children and two adults at the hands of an 18-year-old gunman at a Texas elementary school.

This diagram from the is worth repeating Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing that guns were the leading cause of death among US children between 1999 and 2000:

CDC, New England Journal of Medicine.

Opinion: School shootings could be prevented – 3 key pieces of information on why we’ve suffered 137 of them this year alone

Random Reading

New Zealand’s largest chinook salmon producer is closing some farms as ocean warming is causing it Masses of fish are dying.

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-eclipse-like-event-is-why-bitcoin-could-reach-100-000-by-next-year-says-forecaster-with-a-solid-record-on-the-crypto-11653564203?rss=1&siteid=rss This Eclipse-like event is why Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by next year, says a forecaster with a solid record on crypto

Brian Lowry

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