Soybeans, corn lower, expecting better planting weather

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Soybeans, corn lower, expecting better planting weather

Soybeans were sharply down on fund and technical selling, losing ground overall for the week. Most forecasts had predicted better planting weather for much of the US over the coming week. Soybean products have been mostly lower and crush margins have tightened somewhat lately but remain positive. Trade is also monitoring the spread of COVID in China and lockdowns delaying ships offloading. The USDA Malaysia attaché estimates palm oil production at 19.5 million tonnes in 2022/23, which would be up from 2021/22. Exports this marketing year are expected to be 16.45 million tons compared to 16.5 million last marketing year. Malaysia palm oil futures were lower ahead of Friday’s US meeting. Safras e Mercado has Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop at 122.3 million tons compared to the previous estimate of 125.08 million. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 54.7% of Argentina’s soybean crop will be harvested, resulting in a forecast of 42 million tons, of which 12% will be rated good to excellent. According to Statistics Canada, canola stocks on March 31St, 2022 was the tightest since 2005 at 3.94 million tonnes, much lower than expected and down 49.3% yoy due to drought in some key growing areas. Soybean inventories in Canada were up 0.1% at 2.014 million tons. China’s National Grain Trade Center says it will auction 314,000 tons of previously imported soybeans on May 13thless than previous offers.

Corn was sharply lower on fund and technical selling, cementing lower weekly closes for old and new crop contracts. Corn is also watching US growing weather and expects better progress across most of the corn belt. Large parts of central Brazil remain dry, emphasizing their critical second corn harvest, while conditions in southern Brazil are comparatively better. Safras e Mercado expects total corn production in Brazil in 2021/22 to be 118.13 million tons compared to the previous forecast of 118.16 million, with a second crop of 83.25 million tons compared to the previous estimate of 84.58 million tons. Updated outlooks for CONAB and the USDA are scheduled for Thursday, April 12th. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 25% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested, with production expected to be 49 million tons, unchanged from last forecast, and 16% of the crop in good to excellent condition. According to French AgriMer, 84% of the corn crop is grown in France, slightly behind the pace of last year. Statistics Canada announces domestic corn stocks on March 31stSt was 9.282 million tons, up 13.9% year-on-year, partly due to increased imports.

The wheat complex was mixed, with the most active months still posting strong week-on-week gains. Chicago was slightly up Friday on excessively wet conditions in parts of the east Midwest, while Kansas City was down on profit-taking and Minneapolis consolidated. Trade is also watching crops in Ukraine, hit by Russian invasion, and the weather in India, where hot temperatures are cutting yields. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also halting exports, with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization reporting that nearly 25 million tonnes of grain are stranded in Ukraine as a result of fighting and damage to the Black Sea port. SovEcon sees Russia’s wheat exports at 34.1 million tons in 2021/22, 200,000 more than last estimated. The Russian Grain Union has a record production of 87 million tons, of which 64 million is winter wheat. According to AgriMer from France, 89% of the French harvest is in good to excellent condition, 2% less than last week but 10% more than a year ago. According to Statistics Canada, wheat inventories at the end of March were 10.103 million tonnes, the tightest since 1989, below the preliminary report estimate and 38.7% down from a year ago, hard hit by the prairies drought and higher domestic forage and food consumption. The Buenos Aires Corn Exchange expects a drop in wheat acreage for Argentina due to fertilizer issues, with 4% of the crop being planted. Soybeans, corn lower, expecting better planting weather

Callan Tansill

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