Russian army could collapse, but Putin sees 30,000 casualties as ‘a price worth paying’


Some in the Kremlin have tried to warn Putin that his blood sacrifice has gone a step too far (Image: AP/Rex/Getty/Twitter)

According to a confidential UK report, the Russian army could collapse with more than 30,000 soldiers lost in Ukraine.

The document, authored by “a top UK analyst on Russia” and seen by The Mirror, says Vladimir Putin still believes he can achieve a “partial victory” despite Kremlin insiders trying to persuade him that the invasion was a disaster.

The despot is said to consider the loss of 30,350 soldiers a “worthwhile price” for a small victory in Ukraine.

However, those around him think his blood sacrifice might be a step too far.

Already, Russian failures have narrowed their focus from their original goal of toppling the democratically elected government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv with a pro-Moscow regime.

A view shows buildings damaged by a Russian military strike as Russia's assault on Ukraine continues in the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk region, Ukraine, May 29, 2022. REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko

Putin is said to believe losses of 30,350 troops so far are a “price worth paying” for a small victory in Ukraine (Image: Reuters)

Smoke rises in the city of Severodonetsk during fierce fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops in eastern Ukraine's Donbass region on May 30, 2022, the 96th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. - EU leaders will seek to overcome Hungary's rejection of a Russian oil embargo on May 30, 2022 as part of a further tightening of sanctions against Moscow, whose forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, with fighting in the heart of the key city of Severodonetsk. (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP) (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

Severodonetsk was the focus of intense fighting (Image: AFP)

After being forced into a humiliating retreat from the capital, they have now focused on conquering the rest of the Donbass region to the east, part of which was already held by Russian-backed breakaway rebels.

Your latest mission is to conquer Sievierodonetsk – the last Ukrainian-occupied city in Luhansk.

However, this has been described as a suicide squad in the face of increasing reports of mutinies within the Russian army due to the poor conditions and the huge casualties among the troops.

The secret analysis, seen by The Mirror, says: “Russia’s attempt to secure a quick and decisive victory in Donbass has not yet been successful. You’re still grinding forward, gaining 1-2 km a day.

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“The Russians are now achieving their successes mainly through a slugfest of repeated, very costly infantry attacks reminiscent of 1945, not 2022.

“Putin has managed to hide the gross failures of the election campaign from the Russian public quite well so far, or blame various officials who have been arrested and replaced.

“The Russian people bought into Putin’s disinformation until recently. We have seen an attempt within the Kremlin to send a message to Putin and his closest team that things are going wrong, maybe even catastrophically wrong.’

Despite the uneasiness in the Kremlin, Putin has become convinced that victory in embattled Donbass is now on the horizon and will give him enormous leverage in Kyiv, the report says – and failure would result in his ouster.

But British Russia commentator Bruce Jones said the Russian army could not take many more casualties.

Ukraine estimates that Russia has now lost 30,000 soldiers, 207 planes and 174 helicopters in the war.

According to British Defense Intelligence, the disastrous invasion has likely claimed “devastating” casualties among middle and junior officers, who are being moved forward to the front “because they have uncompromising responsibility for the performance of their units”.

“There has to be a point at which Russian forces can no longer take casualties, a cut-off point,” Jones said.

“This would be a straw that broke the camel’s moment where units could no longer function as a combat force because they are so exhausted.

“It’s happened before and on a small scale it’s happening now – so this could become a reality.”

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Justin Scacco

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