Week 13 has officially entered the book. This week, the Panthers, Browns, Packers and Titans are back in action, with the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles and Patriots all in Bye.
In this weekly column, we’ll be looking at up arrow players and down arrow players based on last week’s games. We will try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the main risks and losers heading into Week 14 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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KJ Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
After posting a 7-76-0 line on nine goals in Week 1, Osborn has become one of the hottest exempt wired sellers on the market. He continued that with a very solid 5-91-1 line on six goals in Week 2, but it has mostly gone downhill for him since that point (apart from his random great performance). Week 6). But with Adam Thielen sprained his high ankle in Week 13 and likely missed the team’s Thursday night game against the Steelers, Osborn should step up now as the WR2 team behind Justin Jefferson. In last week’s game, Osborn ran 43 routes on 92% of the snap time, taking seven goals from Kirk Cousin. Jefferson doubled him to 14 goals (tentative), but Osborn is bracing for a full load on Thursday night and possibly beyond.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
Jefferson was WR9 in the last two games. He is playing nearly all competitive games and is averaging eight goals (including two red zone goals) per game in his last three games with Robert Woods out of the squad. He is averaging 37.3 routes per game in those three games, more than he just got Odell Beckham Jr., who is running 30 routes per game in his two most recent games with the Rams. Jefferson has also scored in his last two games. This was a jolly pass when it came to Arizona to pick up the Cardinals for Monday Night Soccer in Week 14, and the Rams had an implied total of 24.5 points. You will want to enable Jefferson as a WR2 in this section.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Historically, the factor that influenced Jacobs’ fantasy value was his lack of use in passing games. Well, that’s changing right before our eyes, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue with Kenyan Drake out for the season and Jalen Richard on the reserve list / COVID-19. He has averaged 24 chances (17.5 dashes + 6.5 hits) in his last two games and was the overall RB7 in that span. In his first eight games, Jacobs saw an average of four goals across 14 running routes per game. In his last two games, he averaged 6.5 goals across 27.5 runs. He also played at a career-high 85% in Week 13, so there’s plenty of reason to believe the Raiders will continue to give him a heavy workload in the long run. A solid match with the Chiefs awaits Jacobs in Week 14.
Devonta Freeman, Baltimore Raven
At 29, Freeman has become a dark horse for the Ravens and we’re partying like 2016! Since Raven’s 8th week goodbye, Freeman has had 18.2 chances per game playing an average of 60% of catches. But what’s even more impressive is that his workload is increasing, even with Latavius Murray back to the mix. Here’s Freeman’s RB chance rate starting Week 11 – 61% > 58.6% >> 81.5%. He has an 81.5% RB chance rate in Week 13 while Murray only handles 15.4% of the RB job with a 19% season low of snaps. It’s clear that John Harbaugh trusts Freeman to defend the team’s most prized possession, Lamar Jacksonand so he’ll stay there and get most of the work done as a result.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Raven
After looking like a real alpha in his first five games, Bateman cooled off in his last two. He averaged 6.8 goals on 65% of catches in those first 5 games. In the last two games, he has averaged just 2.5 goals per 45% of catches. In fact, in Week 13, Bateman played after both Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins, runs fewer routes (18) than both of them (29 and 26 respectively). This is not a good development for rookies. While this can be a good opportunity to buy low in dynastic formats, you’ll want to proceed cautiously in manual tournaments again as we head into the fantasy knockouts.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Elliott was the overall RB4 from Week 1 to Week 6. As of Week 7 of Cowboys’ Bye, Elliott was just RB24. Before goodbye, he was averaging 20.3 chances per game, averaging 72% of catches. After his goodbyes, he averaged just 16.7 chances per game and played an average of 62% of catches. Zeke has topped 69 yards in 5 of his first 6 games. But since then, he hasn’t topped 51 yards in any of his last six games. Not only is Elliott facing a knee problem, but Tony Pollard is playing at an elite level, averaging 5.63 yards per take in 107 dash attempts this season. A tough game against the upcoming Washington Soccer Team is underway.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lion
With D’Andre Swift sidelined for Week 13, Williams is supposed to be a great RB1 play. That ultimately didn’t happen, but it was his use that made him such a loser heading into Week 14. After playing over 63% of snaps in Week 12 when Swift fell, Williams played only 47% of snaps in Week 13. Godwin Igwebuike, while seeing only four chances, played on 39% of catches and ran 24 routes to Williams ’12. The Lions numbers are in a number of negative game scenarios for the rest of the run (@DEN, vs ARI, @ATL, @SEA), which could go on to lead to more Igwebuike and less Williams , even as Swift continues to miss time due to a shoulder injury.
Noah Fant, Dancer broncos
It feels like every week one of the Broncos’ code catchers shows up on this weekly column. This week, it’s Fant. He played for a season-low 75% of catches in Week 13 and is now averaging just 4.5 goals per game in his last four games since. Jerry Jeudy returned to the squad. Fant averaged seven goals per game in the first seven games of the season, so we’ve seen a dramatic drop in usage for a guy that was once considered a must-start at every finish. form. While, Albert Okwuegbunam scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five games compared to just 2.5 goals per game in the first four games of the season. Believe it or not, Fant no longer has to start at the bottom.
Win Big with RotoBaller
Be sure to also check out all our other daily fantasy football article and analysis to help you outline those winning teams, including this new RotoBaller video on YouTube:
https://www.rotoballer.com/fantasy-football-risers-and-fallers-week-14-3/972397 Risers and Fallers fantasy football for Week 14