Getting a little skin in the game can make watching hockey on the NHL more enjoyable.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will make you an improved bettor with this betting model and betting tool.
Every day we will review each game, Sports Odds (via PointsBet)and each team’s win rate is based on the model generated by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly determine which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which team has the best bet by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit bets.
I will also provide some analysis of the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out major injury news, squad changes and start of backup goalkeepers.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Difference”. is the percentage difference between the model’s %expected Win and the %expected Win based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds convert to percentages, use Odds calculator.
Selection of models
Tampa Bay Lightning (vs LAK)
The Lightning seems to be one of the few teams that didn’t go head-to-head with COVID-19 tonight, in fact, they’re supposed to be slightly better. Both Anthony Cirelli and Zach Bogosian are expected to return to the squad for Tampa Bay when they host the Kings in a 4-4-2 formation this season. Despite its sizable favorites (-176), this pattern shows enough value for tonight’s Lightning bet with Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes.
Bet 1 unit: TBL -176
St. Louis Blues (@ DAL)
At first, betting a Blues team without Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn and both of their goalkeepers seemed like a bad idea. But then your factor in The Stars doesn’t have Roope Hintz, Alexander Radulov and Joel Kiviranta and is still favored to win and it starts to look a little better. Not to mention, Charlie Lindgren has been a revelation for the Blues, having won 3-0 at 1.42 GAA and 0.947 SV% in three games. At +135, the Blues have a lot of value tonight, even if they’re a bit underwhelming.
1 unit bet: STL +135
Proceed with caution ️
New York Islanders (@ DET)
We will pass the islanders tonight. They will be without Mathew Barzal, while the Red Wings will have Tyler Bertuzzi back.
Dallas in regulation vs. STL (-105)
The stars have lost three games in a row, but I love the chance for them to come back tonight at home. They’ve been a great team at home this season with a 9-2-1 record and they’ve actually won eight straight home games, all by the rules. The Blues are just going 5-5-1 and have only five wins in their last 10 games. I like this place.
Crosby 0.5 more support than MTL (-135)
Crosby had a successful seven-game assists streak in Saturday’s Penguins’ game against the Ducks. But I think he can pick at least one tonight in the Penguin vs Canada game. The Habs have conceded an average of 3.79 goals per game as a pawn this season and while the Penguins have only scored once against Anaheim, they have scored 11 goals in their last three games. Best. Pittsburgh should have scored more than one goal tonight and I think Crosby will be in.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/daily-nhl-betting-guide-december-14/ NHL Daily Betting Guide: December 14