IIP Contraction In November 2020 Not Surprising, Say Analysts

Contraction In Industrial Production For November Not Surprising: Analysts On IIP Data

IIP Information: Industrial manufacturing shrank by 1.9 per cent in November 2020

The economic manufacturing in November 2020 shrank by 1.9 per cent, reversing the small features witnessed within the earlier two months of the yr. The index of business manufacturing (IIP) registered development in October 2020. The manufacturing sector output declined by 1.7 per cent in November 2020. The mining output additionally contracted 7.3 per cent, whereas energy technology grew 3.5 per cent, authorities knowledge confirmed. Based on a analysis report by Barclays, whereas hostile base results partly drove the decline, the exercise additionally moderated sequentially as a result of operating out of inventory-rebuilding pushed product demand. Total, the month witnessed exercise shifting sideways with most indicators both declining or sustaining largely comparable ranges to prior months in November. (Additionally LearnIndustrial Production Contracts 1.9% In November 2020 )

Listed below are some views and remarks from economists and analysts on the index of business manufacturing in November 2020:

Ms. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist & Nationwide Director – Analysis, Knight Frank India:

“The contraction in IIP for November is no surprise as the opposite excessive frequency financial indicators had been additionally displaying a moderation in development. Lots of financial revival seen in the previous couple of months had been due to pent-up demand and festive demand, therefore the expansion momentum was anticipated to average. With each day COVID an infection fee lowering, vaccine not far away and the financial system near normalcy, the essential side might be at what stage the expansion momentum stabilizes”

Mr. Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane Worldwide, an funding consulting agency:

”Submit a restoration in industrial manufacturing in October, the IIP knowledge for the month of November has plunged once more, the destructive print or de-growth in IIP is a explanation for concern, this uneven development places some doubt on the restoration in total financial development. Falling IIP, core sector knowledge hints that RBI ought to wait and stick with straightforward liquidity measures, authorities with additional reforms and stimulus measures within the upcoming Union Funds..”


Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuité Scores & Analysis:

“The IIP print for Nov 2020 has been disappointing with a YoY contraction of 1.9 per cent as towards a development of three.6 per cent witnessed in Oct 2020. The information displays the uneven trajectory of the continued industrial restoration, the persevering with uncertainty on a broad primarily based demand revival past the pent up ranges and in addition the slowdown within the export momentum over the past 1-2 months.”

”The persisting weak point in segments resembling oil refining, textiles, apparels and paper proceed to thwart a broader industrial restoration. Additional, each client durables and non-durables manufacturing have seen a stagnation vis-à-vis final yr, highlighting the uncertainty on client demand past the festive months. Given the shortage of consistency within the IIP print, any significant GDP development could also be unlikely in Q3 FY21.”

Dr. Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Scores & Analysis:

”After 2 consecutive months of constructive development, manufacturing unit output (Index of Industrial Manufacturing (IIP)) as soon as once more reveals a contraction of 1.9 per cent within the month of November 2020. India Scores and Analysis (Ind-Ra) had earlier stated – “two consecutive months of constructive development is an efficient signal for the financial system however we might have to look at the info for few months to imagine that financial system is firmly on a path of restoration.”

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