Free NBA Betting Picks – Today’s Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (December 15, 21)


Monday night didn’t go as planned as the Warriors picked up just two points, the Suns dropping their game against a nasty Clippers team without Paul George, and the Nuggets still managed to surpass their total even in a margin of victory. A 0-3 night dented the season’s record a bit, but if we remove the splices and trailers, I’m still right around .500 so I can’t complain too much about that. there.

We have the 11-match standings tonight in the association and a lot of player news that is likely to change between now and 7pm. Remember to keep checking sums and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a bit) throughout the day, especially if a player is eliminated. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I mainly use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors who are using a variety of books.

It’s been a long season and I strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don’t have to sit out any time if your discretionary money runs out. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I roll out some player picks and props to the public when I get the chance. In this article, I’ll provide my favorite picks based on spreads, game totals, matchers, trailers, and player props for the NBA games above. Wednesday, December 15, 2021. I strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by register for a premium card!

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Thunder Dan’s NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season record 46-54
  • Against the spread 25-18
  • Over / Under 16-18
  • Teasers / Parlays 5-18

I am NOT including any of the choices I made on Twitter on the days this article didn’t run, just as an FYI. But I also usually put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

I don’t track units with these options. If you’re wondering how many units to bet per pick, just assume I’m betting one unit per spread, total or prop and potentially only half a unit maximum per parlay or bet. Here is today’s model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I’ve marked the yellow spots where my odds are significantly different from those of Vegas and some of them will end up as official picks, while others you can place your bets as you wish.

One thing you may have noticed is that I added AVG +/- column and ATS margin column. These columns track all-season trends in the margins that teams are covering (or excluding) spreads, as well as how much spreads they have over or under their totals.

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NBA Betting Selection Against Spread

Indiana Pacers (-2) @ Milwaukee Bucks (217 total)

The Pacers nearly equalized the Warriors’ sadness on Monday but ended up losing two points in a game that went on all night. However, they covered it up, which made us bet because I had Warriors in that game. There’s no doubt that Indiana is playing at a higher level at the start of this season, and I can see why they’ll be favored in this game as Milwaukee won’t have Giannis tonight and Kris Middleton is questionable.

My research this morning actually shows that Milwaukee has been pretty consistent without Giannis so far this season with just a lousy loss to Toronto in a game he missed a few weeks ago. If Middleton attends, I’m happy about taking the Bucks’ points at home. This team has been without Lopez all season and without one of the Jrue, Middleton or Giannis in a large portion of their games this season. It forces more people to play their roles into bigger minutes and it also leads to the growth of people like Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis who have thrived this season.

I look up Holiday, Middleton and Portis’s big games in this one and we’ll also see the premiere of Donte DiVincenzo – who started and made a big contribution last season to the champions. It’s a mix of skepticism about whether Indiana is legit and confidence in the champions rallying together without their stars that got me into the Bucks tonight. I’ll probably wait for another update on Middleton before making my final bet, but if he does, I want the Bucks to win. If he gets out, I can see if the line moves a bit and try to grab the Bucks with another point or two in their favor.

The Choose: Bucks +2 (-110 DK Sportsbook) and/or Bucks ML (+110 DK Sportsbook)

Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Portland Trail Blazers (total 218.5)

Don’t look now that the Grizzlies are streaking! They are 9-1 since Ja Morant picked up an injury around Thanksgiving time and they are playing some phenomenal defense while receiving input from various players in their very deep rotation.

The Blazers are trending in the opposite direction. They have got Damian Lillard back after a hiatus of many games but now without their other star defender CJ McCollum for what looks like a long period of time. This team has been pretty bad as one of their top bodyguards is out and they are back here after dropping out of last night’s competition in front of the Sun.

The Grizzlies are currently the fourth-best team in the ATS league with a 17-11 scoreline. I expected Memphis to win big, based on their improved play late in the game and I had to beat the Blazers by a few points without CJ and without a break. I feel really pleased about the Grizzlies getting only three points, I think they’ll win it pretty easily tonight.

The Pick: Grizzlies -3 (-110 DK Sportsbook)

NBA Over/Under Bet Selection

Charlotte Hornets (+3.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (total 227)

It’s a bit of a joke that you could just bet all of the Hornets’ games this season and win, but the reality is that 17 of their 29 games have already surpassed their total – and that total is close. this is a pretty high total as Vegas has put them at a high of 220 to try to entice people to go below.

While I overcame Dallas in their last game due to Dallas not having Luka Doncic, I’m back here. Charlotte is slowly getting stronger and now is just missing Ish Smith and LaMelo Ball in this one (as long as some other questionable people like Plumlee and Washington play). San Antonio should have a full complement of players and they are also a good attacking club this season. They are winning 54% of their games and so this matchup is set up as a potential gunfight with a fast expected pace and a great environment for offenses.

I like it to go past the 230 and stay pretty close, which is what we love about DFS. Don’t hesitate to embrace it even if it goes up a few points today.

Select: OVER 227 (good up to 229.5) -110 DK Sports

New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (total 211.5)

This game can be ugly and features the two worst teams in the Western Conference. Both of these teams played quite badly in attack and this match was fairly neutral tempo. I don’t like to bet under on a game that already has one of the lower totals on the board, but the pattern and trend are both relevant here.

With OKC hitting 61% of the time and New Orleans 62% of the time, the odds are in our favor here that these teams don’t hit this total this time. After showing some vigor, the Thunder have scored 95 and 84 points in their last two games while being held back by Spurs to 97 points in their last game. These teams are not playing well and playing offensively inefficiently. Get the bottom and root for more tiles and revenue!

Pick: BELOW 211.5 (good down to 210) -110 DK Sports

NBA Teaser / Parlay Betting Option

Denver-Utah-Cleveland-Memphis Front Line (+291 DK Sportsbook)

NBA Betting Selection: Team Stats Matrix

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I use this chart when betting in favor of the player! I hope you also find this information helpful when placing your bets.

Thanks for checking out this new column and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!

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Britta Zeltmann

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