FOX 2/Emerson College Poll: Greitens Favored in Missouri Senate Race

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s less than two months until the Missouri primary, as Republicans try to figure out who will run to replace retiring U.S. Senator Roy Blunt.

An exclusive FOX4 poll conducted in partnership with Emerson College and The Hill puts Eric Greitens in the lead for the Republican nomination.

Greitens, the state’s former governor, leads the poll beyond the 3% margin of error.

The poll of 1,000 likely Republican primary voters was conducted over the past weekend, with 26% of voters saying they plan to vote for Greitens. He has a 6-point lead over Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and a 10-point lead over Fourth Circuit Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler.

Seventh Circuit Congressman Billy Long is fourth with 8%, and political maverick Mark McCloskey is just under 4%.

“It seems to be him (Greitens) or Schmitt at this point. Hartzler has that support among women and a little more national awareness than her colleague Billy Long, so I’d say it’s a bit of a three-way race at this point because you have some time between now and day one, said Camille Mumford, director of communications at Emerson College Polling.

She said Greitens had a “very positive” opinion of 25%, but also a “very negative” opinion of 26%. Greitens was accused of extortion and sexual assault, which led to his resignation as governor in 2018.

Despite this, his favor with women is 10 points higher than with men. This poll shows that 27% of women support him, with Hartzler coming in second at 18%. Greitens holds 24% of the men who support him, behind only Schmitt with 25%.

Overall, Mumford said this may be Greit’s race to lose, but there are other things to consider.

While 55% of respondents said their vote will go to the candidate they picked in the poll, 45% said they might change their mind.

“Within that, a stronger majority of people who support Greitens and Hartzler are sticking with their candidate compared to the Schmitt supporters who are still a majority,” Mumford said.

“It’s still 55% of people who say they definitely support him in the primary and won’t change their mind. However, his support appears to be a little softer than the voters of Greitens and Hartzler.”

There is a Trump card that could literally play into this race. We asked this question: If former President Donald Trump endorsed a candidate, would you be more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

Given this scenario, 49% said they would be more likely to vote for the candidate he supports, 41% said it wouldn’t make a difference, and 10% said they would be less likely to vote for Trump’s chosen candidate. FOX 2/Emerson College Poll: Greitens Favored in Missouri Senate Race

Nate Jones

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