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EPL Betting Selection for Match 18 Weeks: Premier League

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As if we needed a reminder how good football betting returns are, we got a midweek dose of the drug. With the Tottenham vs Leicester City game postponed, we’re down to two games this week. We were already profitable in Crystal Palace’s match against Southampton but one more corner in the game would give us a profit overall. Instead, we end up with an 83.76% ROI. It is true that we gave Wolves the lead over Brighton but if it weren’t for the excellent goal we would have had a big profitable week. Here’s hoping for a change in fortunes this weekend.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you’re not happy with it, stop. Never bet what you cannot lose. And if you don’t agree with my picks, don’t bet on them. I am far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy playing football. All I’m doing is looking at the stats to try and find potential value in more expected results. I will predict the scores of each game I review (although they are notoriously difficult to pick so I don’t recommend betting on these significantly) and will pick bets that I think offer great value. Best value so it will reduce you what you bet on and how.

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Betting options at EPL 2021-22

  • Total number of picks: 67-102-12 (-2.58 units)
  • Match result: 20-21

Before we move on, this week’s post is a little different than usual. As of this writing on Thursday, we’ve had five games postponed due to a violent outbreak between teams. Instead of making a few selections over two or three games, we’ll take a quick look at the remaining five and take just a handful of matches. With so much uncertainty right now, you should be extra careful or even just sit out for the next few weeks if you’re not sure about things.

Saturday, December 18, 2021

Burnley (+364) at Aston Villa (-135) – 10:00am ET

Burnley’s winless streak is five games, but they’ve only lost once in the last seven as the draw goes up (eight out of fifteen). They have played eight away games, drawn four and lost four with only six goals scored. Only Wolves and Norwich City have scored 14 fewer goals than Burnley this season.

Aston Villa’s form continues to fluctuate, with wins and losses alternating in their last 5 matches. If that trend continues, they will lose on Saturday but I don’t see that happening. Since Stephen Gerrard took charge of the team, their only defeats have come against Liverpool and Manchester City, with four wins in their remaining games.

In those four wins, Aston Villa have scored twice and I think they will have too much firepower against a Burnley that has not scored in the last three and has conceded seven goals in fifteen games this season. Recent form has been very supportive of the home team and I am doing the same.

Predict the score: Aston Villa 2 – 0 Burnley

Arsenal (-109) at Leeds United (+289) – 12:30pm ET

Leeds beat Manchester City 7-0 on Tuesday, putting more pressure on Head Coach Marcelo Bielsa. Leeds have found themselves in a relegation puzzle with just one win in their last seven games. Although it is difficult to score as last season’s top scorer Patrick Bamford has missed most of this season, they have only four goals in seventeen games.

The only time Leeds did not score at home was against Liverpool with 9 goals scored in the remaining 7 games. But they also only have 2 clean sheets at home (1 game away) so they are no longer as sure as last season (12 clean sheets). Leeds really have an injury crisis and are expected to be without key players Bamford and Kalvin Phillips for this weekend.

Arsenal bounced back with a 3-0 win over Southampton, followed by a 2-0 win over West Ham United on Wednesday. Both came after club captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang breached the club’s disciplinary rules and was eventually stripped of the captaincy.

Both of those wins came at home, where they are in great form (7-1-1). But away from home, they have 3 consecutive defeats and the score 2-1-5, with only 6 goals scored. They have scored five goals in their last four away games and have an impressive win over Leicester City before the last one so they are sure to get a win along the way.

I’m always afraid of going up against a team after a heavy defeat because it usually gets them excited and they put on a great performance. But Leeds lack too many key players and lack depth in the squad to really replace them, so although I don’t think it will be easy for Arsenal, I believe they will have too many and win.

Predict the score: Leeds United 1 – 2 Arsenal

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Chelsea (-178) at Wolves (+576) – 9:00am ET

Chelsea’s form continues to falter and a 1-1 draw at home to Everton on Thursday means they have won just three of their last seven league games. After conceding only three goals in the first ten games (seven clean sheets), they now have only one clean sheet in the last seven and have scored nine goals.

Chelsea are scoring steadily while Manchester City are the only team to keep a clean sheet against them. Even in their poor run, they have 13 goals in seven games, so they will be looking to tighten things up at the back again to hit their peak form.

Wolves secured a tight 1-0 win over Brighton on Wednesday, to end their four-match winless streak. Unlike their opponents this weekend, it was difficult to score and Wednesday’s only goal was their first in five games. Only Norwich have scored 13 fewer goals than Wolves and they have only 5 goals in 8 home games.

Defensively, Wolves have been excellent with Wednesday keeping their sixth clean sheet of the season and their 14-game total conceded this season is the fewest outside of the top three teams in the league. Only three teams have scored more than once against them in a game.

I don’t want to bet on Chelsea and they haven’t gone two games in a row without a win in the league. But Wolves are a tough team to beat and their last two defeats were both 1-0 to Manchester City and Liverpool. So they can prove tough against the top teams and if they capitalize on Chelsea’s recent weak defence, they should be able to take a point.

Predict the score: Wolves 1 – 1 Chelsea

Manchester City (-492) at Newcastle United (+1253) – 9:15am ET

Manchester City had a 7-0 win over Leeds United and welcomed Kevin de Bruyne back from injury. They have won their last seven matches by a total score of 20-3. They’ve done such races together for years and it’s almost impossible to see them not win when they’re in such form.

They will draw or lose at some point in the next few games but trying to predict it will be impossible. They have everything working at both ends of the pitch and Newcastle will need to be at their best, Manchester City at their worst and some luck to be on their way if they must stop their streak. this win.

Newcastle have failed to build momentum for their first win of the season, having lost 4-0 to Leicester City and 3-1 since then. They took an early lead against Liverpool and a late defeat to Leicester skewed the score a bit, but they still look like a relegation team unless they can do something impressive in the January transfer window.

The odds show where the two teams are right now, despite being the richest clubs in the league. Manchester City is more established under their billionaire bosses and that will be reflected in the game and the scores.

Predict the score: Newcastle United 0 – 3 Manchester City

Liverpool (-170) at Tottenham (+413) – 11:30am ET

Tottenham’s last three games in all competitions have been postponed due to the club’s outbreak, so it remains unclear whether this will take place. If that happens, the home side could be well-rested but also find themselves a bit tired having not played a game in two weeks.

It’s not clear which players have been affected and affected so there’s a lot of uncertainty going on in this game so it’s definitely not who I’m targeting in any betting game which single.

Liverpool can’t quite match Manchester City’s winning streak but a win from behind against Newcastle United on Thursday gave them a sixth straight win. Their total score in that game was 17-2 and ten of the 13 goals they have conceded this season have come in four games.

If Liverpool get off to a quick start, Tottenham could find it difficult to cope with not playing for two weeks and that could make all the difference. Even if Tottenham weather the storm or take the lead, Liverpool still have a lot of firepower, I see them winning seven games in a row.

Predict the score: Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool

Betting Options – Spreads

  • Aston Villa win, Manchester City -1, Liverpool win – (+308) 1 unit
  • Chelsea / Wolves draw, Arsenal win – (+645) 0.5 units
  • Over 1.5 goals in Aston Villa / Wolves, Newcastle United / Manchester City & Tottenham / Liverpool matches and under 3.5 goals in Leeds United / Arsenal & Wolves / Chelsea matches – (+227) 1 unit
  • No bet on draw Aston Villa, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool – (+173) 1 unit
  • Aston Villa and Manchester City scored over 1.5 goals – (+131) 2 units

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

Bet more and choose DFS

https://www.rotoballer.com/epl-betting-picks-for-matchweek-18-english-premier-league-2/976026 EPL Betting Selection for Match 18 Weeks: Premier League

Britta Zeltmann

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