A mixed bag for us last weekend. Friday saw us correctly score and pick all four picks as Brentford beat Watford. On Sunday we didn’t pick any options as Newcastle United beat Leicester City 4-0. The visitors took the lead until a suspicious penalty allowed Leicester to take the lead but their last goal came from a misplaced pass. We are experiencing a sharp outbreak between teams and one game over the weekend fell victim to it with others threatening to be postponed, so watch things carefully before booking. any bet.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you’re not happy with it, stop. Never bet what you cannot lose. And if you don’t agree with my picks, don’t bet on them. I am far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy playing football. All I’m doing is looking at the stats to try and find potential value in more expected results. I will predict the score of each game I review (although they are notoriously hard to pick, so I don’t suggest you bet on these significantly) and will pick bets that I think give Best value so it will reduce you what you bet on and how.
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Betting options at EPL 2021-22
- Total number of picks: 64-97-12 (-1.20 U)
- Match result: 20-19
Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Southampton (+271) at Crystal Palace (+117) – 2:30pm ET
Southampton were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal on Saturday. After a brilliant start to the game, they conceded a counter-attack and never really regained possession. That’s five games without a win and scoring just three goals in their last six away games.
Crystal Palace beat Everton 3-1 on Sunday to end a three-match losing streak. Their only home defeat was against Aston Villa in their previous home game and they have scored 13 goals in their last seven home games, scoring two or more on four occasions.
Plus the odds for the home side are tempting as Southampton look like a team in need of something different with manager Ralph Hasenhüttl under increasing pressure. Another loss here could see Southampton’s hierarchy change.
Of Crystal Palace’s 13 goals at home, only two were scored in the first half while Southampton conceded seven in the first half away and 10 in the second half. If that’s the level at halftime, I still want Crystal Palace to go with all three points.
Crystal Palace have taken 70 corners this season (sixth least) with forty taken in their eight home games (30 of eight away). They also have 15 goals in the last two home games. Southampton’s 98 corners are the fourth most in the league and they have had seven or more in each of their last four away games. We will take a total of 10.5 corners here, which has happened in six of Southampton’s eight away games.
Predict the score: Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Southampton
- Moneyline – Crystal Palace (+117) 1 unit
- Second half scoring team – Crystal Palace (-140) 2 units
- 2nd Round Moneyline – Crystal Palace (+150) 0.5 units
- Total number of angles – over 10.5 (+104) 1 unit
Wolves (+257) at Brighton (+141) – 2:30pm ET
Brighton’s match against Tottenham was postponed for the weekend due to their opponents having an outbreak and they have reported some positive tests of their own, so this is not a certainty. sure to continue. As of writing, there has been no news of a possible postponement so we will proceed as if the match were in progress.
Brighton will likely be happy with extra time as they have gone ten league games without a win. Even though they’ve only lost two of those ten games, they’ve only scored seven goals in that game and they need injury-time equalizers in their last two games.
Wolves were unlucky losers against Manchester City, going 1-0 up after a controversial penalty. That was after star striker Raul Jimenez was shown a red card late in the first half. Their 16 goals conceded this season is the smallest of any team outside of the top three in the league and, after three consecutive clean sheets, they have conceded only once against Liverpool and then Manchester City.
Wolves’ concern is scoring. Saturday, they have gone four games in a row without a goal and their twelve goals this season are the second-lowest, behind only bottom team Norwich City. Jimenez will be suspended for this match, top scorer Hwang Hee-chan has only scored four goals this season and hasn’t scored since last Saturday.
This game looks like a boring affair on paper and it is very difficult to choose a winner. The odds are in Brighton’s favor more than I expected and there is some value in supporting Wolves, especially if Brighton has to do without a few key players.
A quick reminder to not just bet on the exact score 0-0. Go back to the scorers market and select ‘no scorer’. It offers the same odds as the exact 0-0 draw but if the only goal(s) of the match is an own goal, you still win the ‘no scorer’ bet.
The referee for this match was Tony Harrington, who was in charge of his first EPL match. In the Championship, he started eight games and received 31 cards (30 yellows and one red), averaging 3,875 cards per game. Brighton’s 35 yellow cards this season are ranked 4th most and Wolves are 10th with 31 yellow cards.
Wolves’ opponents received 36 yellow cards (third most) and Brighton’s opponents received 34 yellow cards (fifth most). There have been four or more yellow cards in Wolves’ last four games while seven of Brighton’s last eight have totaled four or more yellow cards.
Predict the score: Brighton 0 – 0 Wolves
- Moneyline – Draw (+206) 1 unit
- No bet – Wolves (+144) 1 unit
- Scorer – No scorer (+650) 0.5 units
- Total Cards – Over 3.5 (-133) 1.5 units
Thursday, December 16, 2021
Tottenham (+242) at Leicester City (+111) – 2:30pm ET
As mentioned, Tottenham’s game at the weekend has been postponed due to the squad’s outbreak. That comes after their Europa Conference League match was postponed last Thursday for the same reason, so the match is certainly likely to be postponed.
Leicester kept their first clean sheet since opening weekend, beating Newcastle 4-0. They lost defender Jonny Evans early in that game and he could miss this one. Their 27 goals conceded is the fifth most in the league and this is only the third time this season their opponents have had less than one expected goal conceded (xG) count.
Tottenham could go into this game a little tired without playing since December 5. But new head coach Antonio Conte will have more time to impart his tactics to the team and he has got off to an undefeated start to Tottenham, with a 5-0 aggregate scoreline in their last two matches.
Leicester have scored 11 goals in their last four matches and that is with top scorer Jamie Vardy being benched in their last two. James Maddison has three goals and four assists in that span while Youri Tielemans returns on Sunday to inspire them with two goals.
Tottenham captain Harry Kane has only one goal this season but will see Leicester as his prime opportunity to end his goal drought. He has scored more goals against Leicester than any other team in his career (17 goals in 16 games) and I still don’t trust Leicester defensively to keep him, or Tottenham, around.
Predict the score: Leicester City 2 – 2 Tottenham
- Moneyline – Draw (+274) 0.5 units
- No tie bet – Tottenham (+148) 0.5 units
- Both Teams Scored and Total Goals – Yes and more than 2.5 (+112) 1 unit
- Score any time – Harry Kane (+130) 1 unit
- Score two or more goals – Harry Kane (+750) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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https://www.rotoballer.com/epl-betting-picks-for-matchweek-17-english-premier-league/974727 EPL Betting Selection for Match 17 Weeks: English Premier League