Donald Trump’s election hopes will be all but dead by the end of this year

As I watched through tear gassed, bloodshot eyes in the early hours of the following morning as the National Guard erected a fence around the US Capitol, I was convinced that this was indeed the beginning of the end for Trump. His die-hard fan base was disturbed enough to scale the walls of the Capitol, but they’re a long way from an electoral majority.

Two years later, Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is at its lowest since his first presidential run in 2015.

Incumbent Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis holds his son Mason as he celebrates his re-election at an election night party in Tampa, Florida on November 8, 2022.

Incumbent Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis holds his son Mason as he celebrates his re-election at an election night party in Tampa, Florida on November 8, 2022.Credit:AP

“Looking weak and a loser is kryptonite for the man who built his political Superman personality around victory,” warns legendary Republican strategist Mike Murphy.

Sixty-one percent of GOP voters polled in a United States today/Suffolk University According to polls, they would prefer another candidate to pursue Trump’s conservative policies over the next two years, with two-thirds backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the man for the job.

“There were people around Rasputin who said he can never be killed until they brought a big enough gun,” Murphy points out.

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Murphy, who advised John McCain, Jeb Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger, predicts Trump will realize he can’t win the general election before the end of 2023 and instead seek to dictate who wins the Republican Party nomination.

“That way he gets all the media attention with a much lower risk of political embarrassment,” says Murphy.

Given that the U.S. federal justice system is reluctant to investigate presidential candidates, Trump’s early announcement that he will run in 2024 is likely both a legal and a political strategy.

Twice indicted – amid a spate of investigations into his family business, alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election and possible prosecution for his role in the Capitol riot – reality seems to be finally catching up with the TV star.

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Murphy compares the American legal system to lava: slow-moving but “fundamentally unstoppable”.

Trump will eventually have his day in court, it’s just a question of whether he’ll be indicted in any number of investigations before 2024.

Those hoping to see the New York billionaire in an orange jumpsuit standing in line for the prison laundry may be disappointed. Even if convicted, Trump is unlikely to be watching election coverage from a jail cell. He’s more likely to be locked up in “a bungalow at an air force base somewhere in North Dakota,” Murphy predicts. It’s still an extraordinary image to ponder: a former US President behind bars – a fate even Richard Nixon avoided.

Trump’s political agony, like the man himself, was dramatic and often terrifying. The most recent, heralded as a “big announcement” by Team Trump, was the launch of digital trading cards, showcasing the 76-year-old in a variety of avatars, including a superhero and a NASCAR driver. The non-fungible tokens initially sold out in less than a day but have lost more than 70 percent of their value over the past week.

Its stocks are plummeting across the board.

Without the backing of the GOP, and with the FBI in circles, 2023 could well be the year The Donald finally dances off the stage — or gets dragged — forever.

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https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/by-year-s-end-trump-will-likely-realise-he-s-had-his-last-dance-20230103-p5c9zw.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_world Donald Trump’s election hopes will be all but dead by the end of this year

Callan Tansill

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