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Climate change and geopolitical instability: 11 countries at high risk

People use boats to move around in a flooded neighborhood in the Kareli Gaus Nagar area of ​​Allahabad on August 12, 2021 after heavy monsoon rains overflowed the Ganges and Yamuna rivers.

Sanjay Kanojia | AFP | beautiful pictures

WASHINGTON – The nation’s collective intelligence community has identified 11 countries vulnerable to geopolitical instability due to climate change for the first time. National Intelligence Estimates on Climate Change.

According to the report, Afghanistan, Burma, Colombia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Iraq, Nicaragua, North Korea and Pakistan are likely to face a series of extreme weather events that threaten energy security, food, water and health.

The report from the Office of the Director said: “Decreased energy, food and water security in 11 countries is likely to exacerbate poverty, tribal or ethnic tensions and poverty. dissatisfaction with governments, increasing the risk of social, economic and political instability,” reports the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the nation’s 18 intelligence agencies.

Overall, “intensification of physical effects will exacerbate geopolitical hotspots, especially after 2030, and key countries and regions will face the risk of day-to-day instability.” growing and in need of humanitarian assistance,” the report said.

The report outlines several scenarios:

  • Rising temperatures and increased rainfall could fuel outbreaks of mosquito and diarrheal diseases in South Asian and Central American countries, worsening health outcomes and causing additional loss of life.
  • More intense and frequent tornadoes have the potential to contaminate water supplies, with scientific models suggesting that dengue incidence is likely to increase in Afghanistan, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India , Iraq and Pakistan.
  • Climate change will likely accelerate the loss of biodiversity leading to more extinctions of plant and animal species that can no longer survive in their traditional habitats and pose risks to ecosystems. ecology on which the global population relies for food and medicine.
  • Prolonged dry spells accompanied by excessive rainfall have devastated corn and bean crops in Central America. Outputs of these and other crops in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua are projected to decline significantly, raising the prospect of food insecurity and a decline in key exports.

The report adds that 11 countries are most likely to lack the financial resources and governance capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

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“Foreign governments, international organizations and private investment can provide financial support, technical expertise and climate-adaptive technology to alleviate some of the constraints – such as loss of food and water security and urban poverty – but in 11 countries these efforts can be hampered by poor governance, weak infrastructure, pervasive corruption and lack of access to resources. substance,” the report said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/climate-change-and-geopolitical-instability-11-high-risk-countries.html Climate change and geopolitical instability: 11 countries at high risk

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