AFL Ladder Predictor 2022: Every finals contender rated where your club will end up

Suddenly, Richmond’s Finals hopes hang in the balance after the horrible loss to the Suns. Here’s what needs to happen for the Tigers to make the eight.

The run home is heating up, with just six weeks left in the home-away season.
Some teams missed a few chances in Round 17 when it came to securing top 8 and top 4 finishes, while other teams kept their faint hopes of the final alive.

We looked at the home runs of all finalists to find out who could finish where.

1.GEELONG (12-4, 136.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $4, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.08

R18: Carlton (MCG) W

R19: Port Adelaide (AO) W

R20: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA) W

R21: St Kilda (GMHBA) W

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Expected end: 1

They may not be bookies’ favourites, but last Thursday’s triumph over incumbent Premier Melbourne cemented the Cats’ place as the No. 1 competition for the moment. The Cats have now won seven straight games and face only one top-eight side at home – this week Carlton. Star defender Tom Stewart will not return until Round 20 due to suspension but otherwise the side are near full capacity as they pursue a second small Premiership in four years.

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2. MELBOURNE (12-4, 133.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.30, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.20

R18: Port Adelaide (TIO) W

R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R20: Fremantle (Optus) L

R21: Collingwood (MCG) W

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) L

Expected end: April 4th

The Dees are in trouble as the reigning Premiers have won just two of their last six games. The real concern, however, is who their losses are aimed at. Melbourne have won 2-4 against the top 8 sides this season and meet four other teams tied in September in a tough home game. The backline was exposed against Geelong last week and the forward line isn’t working well at all. Coach Simon Goodwin has work to do to turn things around and try to secure a place in the top two.

3. FREMANTLE (12-4, 123.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $8, Top 8: $1.01, Top 4: $1.30

R18: Sydney (Optus) W

R19: Richmond (Marvel) W

R20: Melbourne (Optus) W

R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka)W

Expected finish: 2

The Dockers’ past six weeks have been as good as any team. They have won five games in that time, including victories over Melbourne, Brisbane, St Kilda and Port Adelaide. Fremantle still have some challenges ahead of them over the next three weeks, with games against three other top-eight sides. The final three weeks are looking a little easier, however, as Dockers look for some momentum to head into their first Finals series since 2015.

4. BRISBANE (11-5, 124%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $10, Top 8: $1.07, Top 4: $1.80

R18: GWS (Manuka)W

R19: Gold Coast (Gabba) W

R20: Richmond (MCG) W

R21: Carlton (Gabba) W

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) W

Estimated result: 3

The Lions lost their first home game of the year to Essendon on Sunday in a blow to their top-two hopes. Brisbane were forced to make nine changes for this game due to injury and a new Covid-19 outbreak spreading at the club. The impact of this outbreak will be an interesting observation over the next week or two. The Lions have three more home games but also meet four other top-half teams and a dangerous Gold Coast Suns side.

5. CARLTON (11-5, 116.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $12, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $3.75

R18: Geelong (MCG) L

R19: GWS (Marvel)W

R20: Adelaide (AO) W

R21: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) W

Expected end: June 6th

The Blues pulled off a huge 63-point win over the West Coast on Sunday to continue a seven-week period of alternating wins and losses. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay each scored five goals in the win and both are in the top 10 in the Coleman Medal race. The Blues’ injury crisis is easing at the right time of year. There’s still a tough road ahead, however, with four top-eight opponents starting this week with ranked leaders Geelong. Top 4 therefore looks unlikely.

6. COLLINGWOOD (11-5, 106.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $21, Top 8: $1.25, Top 4: $6

R18: Adelaide (AO) W

R19: Essendon (MCG) W

R20: Port Adelaide (MCG) W

R21: Melbourne (MCG) L

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) L

Expected end: 7

Richmond could learn how to win tight games from his archrival. The Magpies are in seventh heaven after winning seven straight games after Saturday’s seven-point win over North Melbourne. Five of the wins during that period have come by 11 points or less, including the last three. Collingwood should have eight straight wins this week as they beat back Adelaide by 42 points in Round 2. They have already beaten Essendon, Melbourne and Carlton earlier this season.

7. SYDNEY (10-6, 120.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $15, Top 8: $1.10, Top 4: $2.75

R18: Fremantle (Optus) L

R19: Adelaide (SCG) W

R20: GWS (SCG) W

R21: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Expected end: May 5th

The Swans swept the Western Bulldogs by 53 points last Friday night but remain an elusive side given their up and down form over the past two months. They have a tough task ahead of them this week against Fremantle in Perth but there are some winnable games ahead after that. The door to the top-4 would be wide open if Sydney could upset Dockers this week, but without a win there it will be an uphill battle.

8. RICHMOND (9-7, 116.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $13, Top 8: $1.35, Top 4: $6

R18: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

R19: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R20: Brisbane (MCG)L

R21: Port Adelaide (AO)W

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Expected end: Aug

Fadeouts in the final quarter have cost the Tigers this year, no more than in Saturday’s heartbreaking loss to Gold Coast. Richmond had led by 40 points early in the third quarter, only to lose to a Noah Anderson goal after the final siren. Expect Damien Hardwick’s side to bounce back against North Melbourne this week and they’ve beaten Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Essendon earlier this year. The top-four hopes looked disappointed, but the Tigers’ place in the top-eight looks relatively secure for now – despite some injury concerns.

9. ST KILDA (9-7, 104.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $3.50, Top 4: $21

R18: Western Bulldogs (Marvel) W

R19: West Coast (Optus) W

R20: Hawthorn (Marvel) W

R21: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Expected end: 9

The Saints are just outside the top eight percentage-wise, but they don’t look like a finals team with six rounds left. They have won just one of their last five games – against an inaccurate Carlton two weeks ago – and scored just three goals in the second half against Fremantle on Saturday night in a 41-point loss at Marvel Stadium. This week’s clash with the Bulldogs is huge. If you lose that, it could almost be over for the Saints, but if you win the next three games, the season will still be alive and headed for a tough final three rounds.

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-8, 110.4%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $6, Top 4: $51

R18: St Kilda (Marvel) L

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) L

R22: GWS (Marvel)W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Expected end: 11

The Bulldogs appear to have resigned themselves to missing endgames this year, with problems across the field. They suffered a second heavy defeat in as many weeks against Sydney on 53 points last Friday night and meet four other teams in the top half of the rankings over the next four weeks. The Bulldogs have conceded 100+ points in three of their last four games, which doesn’t fit the profile of a finals team. It’s been an overwhelming year for last year’s Grand Finalists.

11. GOLD COAST (8-8, 108.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $4, Top 4: $51

R18: Essendon (Marvel) W

R19: Brisbane (Gabba) L

R20: West Coast (Metricon) W

R21: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

R22: Geelong (Metricon) L

R23: North Melbourne (Marvel) W

Expected end: 10

There’s still a long way to go, but the Suns’ Finals hopes are alive after a win over Richmond on Saturday. The side showed serious determination to come back from a 40-point deficit in the third quarter and secure a two-point win with a beautiful Noah Anderson goal after the siren. Gold Coast meets four teams from the bottom five at home but would need at least one win against Brisbane or Geelong to finish in the top eight.

12. PORT ADELAIDE (8-8, 108.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $81, Top 8: $4, Top 4: $51

R18: Melbourne (TIO) L

R19: Geelong (AO)L

R20: Collingwood (MCG) L

R21: Richmond (AO)L

R22: Essendon (Marvel) W

R23: Adelaide (AO) W

Expected end: 12

The Power are still in the hunt for the final after beating Great Western Sydney by 55 points on Saturday. However, it would still need something special. Port Adelaide face four top-eight sides over the next four weeks – and would need to win at least five of their last six games to play the final. An eight-point loss to Fremantle in Round 16 could strike back.

LAST PREDICTED LADDER

1. Geelong (18-4)

2.Fremantle (18-4)

3. Brisbane (17-5)

4 Melbourne (16-6)

5.Sydney (15-7)

6.Carlton (14-8)

7 Collingwood (14-8)

8 Richmond (13-9)

—-

9. St Kilda (12-10)

10. Gold Coast (11-11)

11. Western Bulldogs (10-12)

12. Port Adelaide (10-12)

13. Hawthorn (7-15)

14. Essendon (7-15)

15. GWS (6-16)

16. Adelaide (6-16)

17. West Coast (3-19)

18. North Melbourne (1-21)

PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS

QF: Geelong vs. Melbourne

EF: Sydney vs. Richmond

EF: Carlton vs. Collingwood

QF: Fremantle vs. Brisbane

Originally published as AFL 2022: Every Club’s Run Home and Ladder Predictor for Round 18

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-2022-every-clubs-run-home-and-ladder-predictor-ahead-of-round-18/news-story/7f98a0b18d92d936e78fe8f0525975ca?nk=2f8669ec6e0f9bb504a4b87f9198c54d-1657669277 AFL Ladder Predictor 2022: Every finals contender rated where your club will end up

Nate Jones

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