AFL 2022 watch Pure Footy: Richmond won’t become PM, says David King

Richmond faces charges, and fans of other finalists are concerned. But one stats guru says there is a major flaw that rules out another Tiger term.

The tiger train is coming. But a serious mistake will prevent Richmond from claiming a fourth Premiership in six years, according to the stats gurus.

Richmond’s era was over as they fell 42 points behind Brisbane in the second quarter by round 20. But after roaring back to steal the win, the Tigers followed up with convincing victories over Port Adelaide and Hawthorn to secure a return to the Finals.

They are widely regarded as the most dangerous challenger in the bottom half of the eight with a forward line that includes Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Shai Bolton and surprise package Noah Cumberland.


But the club’s biggest problem all year has been at the other end of the floor and is set to be uncovered in September, according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King.

“In this industry, it’s very easy to get infected by teams that win a few games and look good, especially teams that have had success in previous campaigns,” Hoyne said on Pure Footy, the weekly AFL analysis show exclusively for

He said Richmond’s offense is fourth best in the competition, but the Tigers finished 13th without a footy and 12th for clearances – a very similar profile to Essendon last season and West Coast in 2019.

“They were both strong offensively … but in terms of what they did without the footy, it was a problem – and week one of the finals they’re out. And Richmond is that team this year.

“What they do with the footy is why they are dangerous. If you’re not in the first final and you’re having a bad day defensively, they will overcome you and beat you because they are so dangerous.

“But when you’re on and you’re there defensively, they sniff you back the other way.

“Their defensive profile is something they didn’t have in their successful finals campaigns. They will have to do it very differently than they did in 2017-20.”

King was emphatic: “I’m telling you, they don’t win it because their defensive profile doesn’t add up. I think they know that and welcome the shooting.”

Also on this week’s program, King and Hoyne preview Sunday’s Collingwood-Carlton blockbuster, compare the Essendon and North Melbourne youngsters and reveal what Jeremy Cameron’s absence means for Geelong.

Originally published as Pure Footy: David King and Daniel Hoyne look back at the latest trends in the AFL after Round 22 AFL 2022 watch Pure Footy: Richmond won’t become PM, says David King

Nate Jones

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