A depression forms that is expected to hit Central America as a hurricane

The system, formerly known as Invest 91L in the Caribbean, was flagged as a potential tropical cyclone by NHC yesterday morning and then upgraded to the 13th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season until last night.

The system should soon become Julia and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Central America late weekend through early next week. The biggest threat is life-threatening flooding and mudslides from heavy rains in the coming days.

Only a handful of tropical cyclones formed in the Caribbean or moved south until Tropical Depression 13.

Other low-traveling systems include Alma (1974), Greta (1978), Joan (1988), Bret (1993), Isidore (2002), and two unnamed hurricanes in 1892 and 1877.

Of the almost 2,000 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic record book, this one dances on the southern edge.

Traces of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic (WPLG)

The system is already responsible for widespread flooding in the southern Caribbean, including in Trinidad and Tobago, where heavy rains in recent days have caused extensive damage and numerous landslides.

Intensity leadership suggests good chance of quick reinforcements as TD 13 departs South America this weekend for the Western Caribbean. Regardless, the potential for heavy rains and major flooding from the northern tip of Colombia to the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras will remain a concern.

Otherwise, the tropics are likely to plummet next week. We’ll be on the lookout for doom on the fringes of the autumn cold fronts as they sink into the still-warm waters of the Gulf and western Atlantic, but for now we don’t see any signs of trouble.

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https://www.local10.com/meta/newsletter/2022/10/07/depression-forms-forecast-to-strike-central-america-as-hurricane/ A depression forms that is expected to hit Central America as a hurricane

Sarah Y. Kim

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